Russia was forced to invade Ukraine. Russia had legitimate security concerns which were for too long taken for granted by the West. The West thought Russia isn’t a power who deserves a say in shaping the European Security order.
Russia’s invasion in Ukraine is a sad story for humanity. For Russia, this was genuinely an existential crisis which forced them to take this disastrous step. Russia will achieve its goals in its “Special Military Operation” no matter how long it takes. The Kremlin, as it is believes that any dragged on conflict in Ukraine will eventually benefit Russian goals of breaking NATO because time is on Russia’s side.
For the Global South, the Great Power Game in Europe, is as it has always been, bringing despair of unprecedented magnitudes. Food, fuel, fertilizers crises are all for real in the developing world. These economies are facing the brunt of inflation & unemployment which can have spiraling political consequences.
Globalisation has suffered a big blow which desperately needs two important players to step up collectively – India & China. This isn’t happening anytime soon given the level of mutual distrust between New Delhi & Beijing.
Iran is racing towards a nuclear arsenal. North Korea has legally codified its nuclear status and prohibited the Government from holding any talks with anyone regarding the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. China is rapidly increasing its nuclear arsenal to compete with the US for the high seas. All this at a time when Russia has formally announced its suspension from the New Start Treaty indicates that the Global Security Architecture is on the verge of collapse and will need a monumental diplomatic effort to stitch it back, something only Moscow looks perfectly placed to do.
The Western alliance is facing an existential crisis in the face of Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. The Franco-German partnership wants to defeat Russia in Ukraine but not give it a strategic defeat because they understand the importance of Russia for European Security. The Anglo-Saxon alliance, who aren’t located on the European continent, are all in to give Russia a strategic defeat with an aim to remove President Putin’s regime and hopefully break Russia again.
Russia’s own worldview has changed a lot in the past year. It has increased cooperation with India, China, Gulf, Iran, developing countries of Asia, Americas & Africa. Russian Eurasianism is best explained by the fact that Russia is working in cohesion with Asian partners to stitch a secure Eurasian Security order.
The credibility of UN system in Global Governance has faced it’s toughest challenge in over seven decades. To revive the trust in International Law is a very complex task as it looks at the mark of the first anniversary of Ukraine war.
