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The Geopolitics of Black Sea

The Turkish President is on a visit to Sochi, Russia to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, in an attempt to revive the critical deal, the Black Sea Grain Corridor.

The Black Sea Grain Deal is hailed as an important food security deal from the perspective of Asia, Africa and Latin America. The agreement was brokered by the UN and Turkey between Russia and Ukraine in late 2022. Under the deal, the Russian blockade imposed on 3 critical Ukrainian ports was lifted and unhindered transit of grains was allowed.

Russia withdrew from the deal in July 2023 citing the failed assurances of the Western partners. Russia’s part of the deal included letting the Ukrainian grain export flow through the Black Sea, whereas Russia was promised that the Western sanctions against Russian entities won’t hamper the agricultural exports of Russia.

However, Russian food and fertiliser firms have reported issues arising out of shipping and insurance deals to transport Russian grain to the world markets. Western firms, fearful of facing the wrath of sanctions, are not inclined to deal with their Russian counterparts, which is hampering the exports of Russia.

Russia has time and again clarified that it would only re-enter the Black Sea Grain Deal when the West fulfils its promises. This means to roll back some sanctions from Russia. If the Western Governments roll back sanctions from Russia, it would hurt their political image. Hence, the West argues that they have fulfilled whatever they should have under the scope of the agreement.

Turkish President Erdogan met his Russian counterpart, President Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. The two discussed the Black Sea Grain Deal and efforts to revive it. Last week, the UN Secretary General wrote to the Russian Foreign Minister but the latter found the former’s proposal unsatisfactory.

At this point, President Putin has rejected any new proposals from the West including the one that President Erdogan has offered on the trip. The Russian leadership feels that the only way to secure a political victory is by forcing the collective west to concede on sanctions.

As far as global food security is concerned, Russia has reached out to the Global South in an individual capacity and also through multilateral institutions to make sure that the repercussions arising out of the “dead” Black Sea Grain Deal aren’t felt by the most vulnerable. The Russians even promised free grains to countries like Burkina Faso and Mali when it hosted the Russia-Africa Summit a few months back.

After his meeting, President Erdogan has signalled optimism in his talks with President Putin. However, a quick breakthrough is hard to come by as suspicions and mistrust grow deeper and deeper between Moscow and Washington.

Alongside renewing the Grain Deal, the two also focused on the security situations in Syria and Ukraine. The two reaffirmed the need to maintain “communication” over various regional and global issues.

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