Afghan developments w.r.t. the future of Afghanistan:
Reports suggest that President Ghani was evacuated by the US and sent to Dushanbe, Tajikistan.
Vice-President Amrullah Saleh announced on Twitter, “I will never betray the soul and legacy of my hero Ahmad Shah Masoud, the commander, the legend and the guide. I won’t disappoint millions who listened to me. I will never be under one ceiling with the Taliban. NEVER.”
Ahmad Shah Masoud was an Afghan warlord of Panjshir Valley, where Saleh was born. Masoud formed an alliance of an all anti-Taliban ethnic groups of Afghanistan and resisted Taliban from 1996 to 2001. He was assassinated on 9th September, 2011 by Al-Qaeda, 2 days before 9/11, which led to US invasion of Afghanistan.
If Taliban doesn’t assassinate Saleh, he will try to form an alliance on the same lines. There will be many ethnic groups and warlords who don’t want Taliban to rule Afghanistan. He will try to mobilize them and resist Taliban. Ideally, he should be backed by NATO countries.
Coordinating Council has been made of former President Hamid Karzai, Jihadi leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and the Chairman of Supreme Council Abdullah Abdullah. They will look after peaceful transfer of Power to Taliban in the next few days. Taliban can form a theocratic Islamic State to have an open, inclusive Government and preserve their hard-lining Islamic ideology.
Afghan developments w.r.t. Asian Order:
Russia has refused to evacuate it’s embassy diplomats which shows that they already have an assurance from Taliban. Pakistan and China have already declared that they will legitimize Taliban as the Official Government of Afghanistan. Turkey and Iran can be next!
US should be ashamed of itself. They have sold Afghanistan! It’s nothing worse than this. Taliban was advancing towards Kabul faster than they thought. So they conducted airstrikes on Taliban. There were 2 crucial underlying clauses in the US-Taliban Deal.
- Neither of US nor Taliban will attack each other.
- Taliban will “reduce” violence.
US conducted airstrikes on the argument that Taliban failed to reduce violence. Taliban retaliated by saying that US broke the US-Taliban deal by conducting airstrikes.
Here is where something goes terribly wrong. Just 1 month ago, President Biden was confident that Afghan forces will defend Taliban. Within a month, they safely evacuate President Ghani to Tajikistan and let Taliban take Power of Kabul.
US has sold Afghanistan’s future for her interests globally. Nothing new from the US. All they achieved in 20 years was a moment to safely evacuate embassy officials from airport instead of through airlifting them from the top of embassy like Saigaon, Vietnam.
Afghan developments w.r.t. the Global Order:
Iran will sense this as a wonderful opportunity to go Nuclear because within next 4 months, US is withdrawing from her Western neighbour, Iraq. That brings Iran’s influence from Strait of Hormuz to the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.
The Axis of Resistance which Iran is aiming to form, which includes Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, will create a chaos in the Gulf. Israel can officially go Nuclear citing threat to existence.
Russia will play a stabilizer role in Afghanistan and the region. She is the only other well-established & mature power with an Afghan History.
China will aid dozens of infrastructure projects and make Afghanistan a part of BRI.
India, at the moment, needs to observe “Strategic Patience”. Let events unfold and then review your strategies and policies.
