some real geopolitical analysis of “why” this could have happened?
Leaving all the journalistic information aside because it is all over the internet for one to read, let’s get onto some real geopolitical analysis straight-away.
Chinese Communist Party High Command (Politburo) is a very tight leadership group. The Party is all Supreme in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). There are many elders / seniors of the Party who might have retired from active politics but still hold considerable sway in how the Party governs the State.
The Chinese Communist Party has one vision – to replace USA as the Global Superpower by 2049. Chinese strategic thought revolves around using whatever it takes to achieve the end goal i.e. any & every move undertaken in the process is legitimate.
Under Xi’s leadership, China’s stability is shaking. Domestic economic & COVID crisis as well as Foreign Policy crisis with Japan, India, Taiwan & USA to name a few. The larger picture is that the Chinese elders have realized that the continuation of Xi Jinping as President for Life endangers the end goal of Global Chinese hegemony.
Xi’s China has grown more hostile to the West, which is not something the Chinese themselves can afford. At the end of the day, China is an economic powerhouse because she is playing the Game of Globalization very smartly under a US led World Order. If China is left to fetch for itself, it lacks the innovation to overtake the West. She needs Western investments, Western technology & Western cooperation to keep growing.
2049 is still 27 years away and it is not a very good time to be hostile to the West when it is facing an existential crisis of it’s own. Instead, China has to be flexible to the West to ensure stability at home as well as secure her interests abroad.
Chinese Strategic Vision remains intact regardless of the coup successfully destroying Xi’s ambitions or being a failed attempt. This attempt by elders shows that the Party is even ready to change the leadership in pursuit of the Greater Goal.
