A NEW TWIST IN EFFORTS TO REVIVE THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL.

If Iran gets the Nuclear Deal & sanctions are lifted, Russia is planning to use Iran to bypass western sanctions to export Russian energy. For example, if Russia is to sell energy worth $100 to Europe, Russia will instead sell $100 of Russian oil to Iran. Iran will consume that Russian oil for domestic purpose & sell $100 worth of Iranian oil to Europe. The $100 earned by Iran will be sent to Russia in a currency which Russia demands. This was the plan President Putin had discussed with Iranian leadership during his recent visit to Tehran.

USA, which was very adamant on reviving the Iranian Nuclear Deal, is now reversing the position. USA doesn’t want Russia to succeed in this plan and so it has replied to the Iranian proposal in a tone which US has not adopted since March 2021 (when efforts to revive the Iranian Nuclear Deal / Vienna Talks began). Iran was previously asking for removal of IRGC, Iran’s elite army, from the US list of terrorist organisations. Iran dropped that demand. Iran has now demanded that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should drop an old probe that seeked to investigate traces of uranium found on undeclared sites in Iran. The traces of uranium found were secretive but the information was leaked which led to a probe. Now Iran wants this probe to be dropped, but US has replied saying that they cannot allow this to happen, which is what Israel wants. Israel wants Iran to be found guilty of secretively diverting uranium from peaceful means to developing nuclear weapons. So, in a way, US has conceded to Israeli demand and played a card which is very difficult for Russia & Iran to comprehend.

This is a twist in the efforts to revive the Iranian Nuclear Deal. If this deal breaks off, Russia will lose the opportunity to exploit a legal loophole in order to sell their oil. But more importantly, if the deal breaks off, Iran will build the nuclear bomb. This will trigger an arms race in West Asia.