Where did it all begin?

If we look at the conflict from October 7, we can analyse how this episode of the Israeli-Palestine conflict has evolved. It is very important to unequivocally denounce the heinous acts carried out by Hamas-led armed Palestinian factions in Israeli towns on October 7. It is equally important to note that there are underlying factors which led to Hamas carrying out this attack. Ever since PM Netanyahu returned to power in late 2022 with a coalition of far-right parties, tensions in the region have remained high. Described as the “most conservative government in Israel’s history”, the National Security Minister Ben Gvir called for a crackdown on Palestinians in the West Bank. He also entered the Al Aqsa mosque triggering a response from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad from Gaza. It is at this time that in an act of deception, it is alleged that Hamas provided intel on Palestinian Islamic Jihad to Israel in order to gain Israel’s trust. Ben Gvir’s aggressive policy of increasing settlements in the West Bank was well agreed upon before he decided to lend support to Netanyahu for the coalition government. An increase in settler violence and a raid at the Al Aqsa triggered a terrifying response from the region and beyond.

Operation Al Aqsa & Operation Swords of Iron

It is in this backdrop that Hamas carried out the October 7 attack. Israel declared Hamas more dangerous than the Daesh / Islamic State. It really rallied the world into the narrative that “this is the biggest attack on Jews since Holocaust” & “this is our 9/11”. It invoked the Right to Self-Defence & Right to exist clauses of International Law and vowed to give a response that would change West Asia forever. The groundwork for an invasion was ready. Israeli Defence Forces entered North Gaza after relentless aerial bombardment by the Israeli Air Forces.

The initial wave of internal displacement started from Gaza City towards Khan Younis along the Saladin Highway. After an initial deadly assault on almost everything in Gaza, Israeli forces did not hesitate even in bombing UN schools and Hospitals. Hamas agreed to release two Israeli hostages on the grounds of health while it agreed to release all Russian citizens who had been taken hostage to Gaza. Qatar, being the host for Hamas political bureau in Doha, started consulting across the region from Jordan to Egypt to Saudi Arabia and even Iran to get an idea of where the regional countries stand. It then initiated a truce negotiation with the Americans, Israelis and Hamas. While Egypt handled the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza through the Rafah crossing, Qatar engaged in negotiating a ceasefire. Both got initial luck as international aid started flowing into Gaza through Egypt and Qatar was able to successfully negotiate the truce in November 2023.

The November Truce

The ratio of Israeli hostages to Palestinian prisoners was set at 1:3, i.e. for every one Israeli hostage, three Palestinian prisoners were to be released from the West Bank, majority of them being women & children with non-serious offences. While the idea was to prolong the truce and establish a deconfliction mechanism, the idea that Israel was releasing prisoners into the West Bank irked National Security Minister Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Smotrich. They threatened to withdraw support because they were not included in the War Cabinet, which only consisted of the PM, the Defence Minister Gallant and the Leader of Opposition Benny Gantz. Under pressure from his political allies, Netanyahu chose to relaunch the offensive with the aim of dismantling the tunnel infrastructure in Gaza.

Amid these events, calls for “Total Security Control from the River to the Sea” grew in Israel. Although there were massive protests in Tel Aviv and major Israeli cities against the policy of the Government to not negotiate a full hostage release, the Israeli security forces managed to keep pushing the narrative that Israel has to have full control from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, which effectively means erasing any prospects of a two-state solution. Hamas & the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank started to rally the Axis of Resistance and the International community respectively that the survival of the Palestinian dream was at stake.

The West Asian Axis

The Axis of Resistance was very quick to announce support for the Palestinian people. Hezbollah started shelling the northern territories of Israel which led the Government to evacuate the region and vow stronger actions if Hezbollah did not cease its activities. In the Red Sea, through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden, the Houthis launched a series of attacks on international commerce citing support offered by the West to Israel to carry out its war in Gaza. Meanwhile, the Resistance groups in Iraq and Syria attacked American troops in the two countries for over 150 times in 3 months. This led to a strong retaliatory response from the US in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. The world saw authority being exercised in Iraq as after a long time, the Government in Baghdad chose to call both US & Iran out for not respecting the Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity. Attacks somewhat ceased as the Resistance Umbrella Group in Iraq, i.e. the Popular Mobilization Force and particularly the Kataib-e-Hezbollah announced a unilateral ceasefire on attacks on US troops to “save the Iraqi Government a political face”.

Meanwhile, the Israeli Defence Forces had entered Khan Younis. More Palestinians were pushed into the south as Rafah started getting cramped with little aid being delivered. Another round of truce was being mediated through efforts by Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, US & France. The Paris effort was helpful in building on the talks but failed to build negative peace. Hamas wanted a six-week truce ensuring that all Palestinian prisoners held up in Israeli jails would be released in return for the remaining hostages. They also demanded a total ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. Qatar wanted to extend the truce to four-and-half months while the Americans were banking on the fact that a prolonged phase of passive hostilities can help in building a sustainable deconfliction mechanism. Again, the coalition partners of Netanyahu pressured him into not taking the deal and the deal fell apart.

The Cairo Dialogue

Egypt initiated another round of negotiations in Cairo. Mossad Director, CIA Director, Qatari PM and delegation of Hamas visited Cairo to build on the talks. However, against the wishes of the military intelligence, Mossad and the Shin Bet, PM Netanyahu announced that Israel would suspend its participation from any negotiations until Hamas gives up on its “delusional demands” of Israel withdrawing from Gaza. It is because of his coalition partners that Netanyahu had to give up on the talks. The coalition partners want an expansion of Israeli settlements into Gaza once the territory is cleansed off Hamas. Interesting player in the Cairo effort has been Turkey. While the Turkish President Erdogan compared Netanyahu to Hitler and his invasion of Gaza as a genocide, he has also voiced great support for the Palestinian cause. He went to Cairo and announced his proposal of forming an international peacekeeping force for Gaza if Israel withdraws. It has also expressed support to revitalise the Palestinian Authority while refusing to label Hamas as a terror outfit.

Samaria & Judea

On the West Bank (Samaria & Judea), the Palestinian Authority has failed to stop IDF raids across the Palestinian towns. Over a thousand Palestinians have been arrested in the West Bank since the beginning of the Israeli response after October 7. The Palestinian Authority is facing an economic collapse as the funds they are entitled to under the Oslo Accords was withheld by Israel over suspicions that this money can go to Hamas in Gaza. Norway, having the legacy of negotiating the Oslo Accords, stepped in to get those funds transferred into a Norwegian account before it is released to the Palestinian Authority. Now Norway is looking at ways to fund PA in Ramallah because an economic collapse would delegitimize the PA in the eyes of the Palestinian people in the West Bank.

Even the US is looking at bypassing Congressional approvals to somehow get the money to the PA in order to help it maintain control over the Palestinians in the West Bank. The National Security Minister Ben Gvir has armed the Israeli settlers and given a new impetus to the settlements in the West Bank. While the US, UK & the EU have imposed new sanctions on some settlers, the violence in the West Bank is on the cusp of getting dangerous. Add to this the fact that the Israeli coalition wants to stop Palestinians from observing prayers at the Al Aqsa during the month of Ramadan is sure to create a perfect mix of turmoil by March 2024. The Israeli cabinet is considering a decision to restrict people in the age group from 10-60 from visiting the Al Aqsa mosque because they fear a spread of extremism in the West Bank through religious gatherings at the Al Aqsa during the month of Ramadan.

Gift for Terrorism ?

The horrifying images coming out of Gaza shocked the conscience of the world. Some in the West scrambled to find answers to the hypocrisy shown by their elites towards the indiscriminate and disproportionate slaughter of civilians in Gaza, mainly women & children. People in the West questioned the previous attempts at building peace. They reflected on the Oslo peace process and why it has failed to achieve what it set out for. Norway, being the legacy negotiator for the Oslo-I & Oslo-II, came out with a proposal to formally accord recognition to the State of Palestine in its parliament. Still being an important player in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Norway charted out a course to reach the root of the conflict and tried to address it at its depth. What followed is a buildup of conscience within the Western elites that the root cause behind the Hamas attacks on October 7 lies in the denial of the Right to Self-Determination to the Palestinian people. The world started hearing that the UK and the US are planning on recognising the State of Palestine, with a revamped Palestinian Authority. Immediately, the Israeli PM Netanyahu came out with a coalition & cabinet resolution categorically denying the unilateral recognition of the State of Palestine. Referring to the issue as not the one where Right to Self-Determination of Palestine is concerned, but the issue where the Right of Existence of Israel is questioned, Netanyahu proudly proclaimed that it was him who had stopped the creation of a Palestinian State besides the State of Israel. Netanyahu, being a devout Zionist from his grandfather’s generations, declared that Israel will not entertain any pressure from anyone in the world and that all negotiations between Israel & Palestine will and should take place only between Israeli & Palestinian people, without any external interference. He has called to move this resolution against unilateral recognition to the State of Palestine in the Israeli Parliament, Knesset. His coalition partners have claimed that recognising a State of Palestine is equivalent to giving a gift to the terrorists for mass murders carried out on the civilised world.

Case of UNRWA – Crossroads for Liberal Institutionalism

Liberal Institutionalism broadly explains how the “anarchy” that the Realists argue about, can be mitigated through institutional arrangements where the mandate is legally enforceable on all the members on an equal basis. The UNRWA, established as the UN Relief Works Agency, that looks after the 10 million plus Palestinian refugees in Gaza, West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan and various other countries is an institution that has backing from the international community. However, the allegations placed by the Israeli authorities proclaiming UNRWA members as Hamas leaders shocked the West. Many Western countries cut funding to UNRWA. As it is, the aid delivered was very little and then we saw how the Israeli protesters blocked the aid from going into Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing. Humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is exaggerated by the day as UNRWA faces a legitimacy crisis. Back under the Trump administration, PM Netanyahu had successfully got UNRWA banned. The Biden administration came and restored funding to the UNRWA. The idea was to support the Palestinian people through UNRWA. However, the same Biden administration has stopped funding UNRWA on unverified charges shot at the institution by Israel.

Right to Return

Back when Israel was formed in 1948, Israel enacted a law named “Right to Return” which allowed all Jews around the world to return to the national homeland of Israel. While the Nakba of 1948 & subsequent displacements following the 1967 war, 1973 war and the Intifadas have seen more than seven million Palestinians being evicted out of their homes, the Palestinians have demanded their own “Right to Return” from the time Oslo Accords were signed. It is this Palestinian Right to Return which the Israeli leadership fears because it can alter the demographics of the land. Right now around 9 million Israelis live in Israel whereas around 2.3 million Palestinians live in Gaza and around 5 million live in the West Bank. Over 7 million Palestinians are displaced in various countries around the world. If the State of Palestine is formed and if they are able to enact their own Right to Return, the population of Palestine would surpass that of Jewish Israelis. This has been a political obstacle for the Israeli leadership since the Oslo Accords. This is mandated by the UN Resolution 3236 and its mandate has been given to UNRWA. That is the reason dismantling UNRWA matters for the Israeli leadership as it deals another blow to the death of the idea of a Palestinian State.

The Rafah Operation

Over 1.4 million Palestinians find themselves cramped up in a small town of Gaza, Rafah. Rafah borders Egypt. Egypt has a treaty of friendship with Israel that was brokered by the US at Camp David in 1979. Egypt has time and again warned that any further Palestinian displacement into the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt) will be treated as exporting the Palestinian Resistance from Gaza to Egypt. They have warned that this would endanger the peace treaty signed between Egypt and Israel. After claiming to have eliminated around 18 Hamas battalions out of a total of 24, PM Netanyahu has claimed that the IDF will invade Rafah by Ramadan if Hamas doesn’t release all the hostages without any conditions. Qatar is of the opinion that the first step of a ceasefire will bring the hostage deal which will bring a permanent ceasefire. Egypt and Jordan are very clear that any forced displacement of Palestinians through Gaza or the West Bank into their territories will be treated as a declaration of war. Jordan fears that once Israel completes its mission in Gaza, it will accelerate its undeclared war on Palestinians in the West Bank.

The road to a Sustainable Peace?

As President Putin has rightly said in his recent interview with Mr. Tucker Carlson, that International Security should be shared by all and not be exclusive for a Golden Billion, we can see patterns of peace building from various parts of the world that themselves are at odds with each other. We have seen the Russians trying to mediate while the Americans have also tried to broker between Hamas and Israel. It is time we realise that international cooperation is the only way sustainable peacebuilding can be carried out that can save the entire West Asian region from falling into a chaos.

Moscow has recently called for an all Palestinian delegation. The idea is to form a new administrative structure that is inclusive and addresses the vision of all Palestinian people in the West Bank and Gaza alike. Hamas and the PA, along with other armed factions have been invited in an attempt to form a legal authority that can be entrusted with the responsibility of talking with the Israelis for the two-state solution. This trick is a reincarnated strategy of the experiment of establishing a Palestinian Authority in the aftermath of the Oslo process.

What is really needed is a joint effort from all important players to pressure Israel and Hamas alike to stop the hardlining positions and come to a compromise that reflects the aspirations of the international community, i.e. the Two State Solution. Russia can help revitalise the Palestinian Authority while Norway can help mediate the new round of talks for a Two-State Solution. Ofcourse, Qatar and Norway are the most important international mediators for this conflict. Egypt and Jordan can aid the process by intense diplomacy in the region. Powers like India and China can chip in with the influence they enjoy with Israel and Iran respectively to make sure the process doesn’t get derailed. Last of all, Uncle Sam needs to realise that the World isn’t a stupid circus which can’t comprehend the double standards Washington has shown. While calling the war “over the top” & “too many civilians are killed”, the Americans have kept supplying the same weapons that are being used to kill Palestinians. Maybe, the most important role is for Uncle Sam to shred off its hypocrisy and stop arming the State of Israel to make it realise that it will not enjoy support with impunity.

The US has now vetoed the third resolution in the UNSC that called for a total ceasefire in Gaza. They have time and again come out with different excuses to continue giving Israel the ‘licence to kill’. It is extremely important to note that the US was invoking the violation of Right to Self-Determination & Right to Self-Defence by Russia in the Ukraine conflict while it is doing the same when it comes to Gaza. But as is everything and everyone that dares to call out the truth, not supporting Zionism gets you labelled as ‘anti-semite’, which is what even President Biden got labelled as by some sections of Israeli intellectuals. The last 100 years are a proof that there can be no “Peace and Conflict Studies in West Asia”, it will always be “Conflict Studies” because PEACE IN WEST ASIA is a myth.