The Setting
The situation in West Asia at this moment is far more complex than one can acknowledge. The on-ground situation in Gaza as of 24th October 2023 suggests that things are really on the brink.
One hand is Israel, backed by the US-led West, which has piled up its military along the Gaza border. The Israeli Air Force is bombarding the North Gaza to eliminate all the potential Hamas related infrastructure. It looks like they are creating their way for an imminent invasion. Over a million Palestinians living in North Gaza were told by the Israeli Defence Forces to evacuate and head South, but were eventually attacked in the South. The siege enforced by Israel on Gaza is starting to melt down because the logic behind Tel Aviv’s besiegement was to starve Palestinians while bombarding them relentlessly. The humanitarian corridor established by successful American diplomacy is starting to show relief on the ground, although it’s just the third day when the aid convoy has been allowed to pass. The Egyptian President has, in agreement with the American President and the Israeli Prime Minister, announced that all the parties will deal in good faith to keep this corridor for humanitarian assistance open.
Cairo Summit on 21st October 2023
Egypt has recently concluded the Cairo Summit wherein many Arab leaders and Western leaders were invited to find a political solution to the crisis that has been lingering since decades. The Summit failed to produce a joint statement, however clear lines of distinction in official positions were seen as Arab countries called for an immediate ceasefire wherein the Western countries kept it to “establishing humanitarian corridors”. Jordan and Egypt were unequivocal in establishing that any forced displacement of Palestinians will amount to war crimes and that neither of the two will take in Palestinian refugees and encourage a Nakba. The Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas categorically emphasised that Palestinians will not leave their land.
Washington’s fears
Meanwhile, there are reports that the White House is anticipating getting dragged into a West Asian conflict. The deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups alongside the deployment of 2000 American marines in the region to protect American and coalition military infrastructure in Syria and Iraq is indicative of the fact that Washington fears that a situation can arise when the American troops stationed in the region come under direct attack from any state or non-state actor trying to take advantage of the conflict and widen its geography. Americans are also providing Israel with intelligence as well as equipment to mount an invasion if needed. However, President Biden’s administration is cautiously playing their cards. They have tried to rally the Arab countries into condemning Hamas but have failed to do so. On the back of Qatari mediation, the Americans secured a couple of hostages but there are an estimated dozens more western hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. It is speculated that the Americans are pushing the Israelis to delay an invasion because it wants to secure maximum hostages it can, prioritising civilian hostages. President Biden has emphasised that no matter how hard it gets, attempts to unilaterally alter the efforts at reaching a two-state solution must be avoided. Americans are ready to engage in combat to preserve Israeli statehood, if need arises.
The Timing for the Resistance
Far across the Mediterranean and opening into the Caspian in the North to the Persian Gulf in the South lies Iran. The decades-long ambitions of the theocratic regime in Tehran to build an axis of resistance against the West are now showing results. Hamas and Hezbollah are capable enough to handle Israel in a two-front war whereas Houthis and other Shia militias across Yemen, Iraq and Syria stand ready for orders from Tehran to escalate. Iran has built enough capability in the axis that it can avoid getting directly pulled into the war. Tehran knows that the only possibility of Washington getting involved will be to fight Tehran and not its militias. Hence, escalating but not to the level of all out conflict with the Israelis and the Americans is the best way for Tehran.
The other side of the Arab World
As far as the Gulf is concerned, right from Saudi Arabia to UAE, every Arab country has called for an immediate ceasefire and to work towards a political solution. But the avenue for a political solution is difficult because there are over 200 hostages being held in Hamas captivity in Gaza. Until and unless their release isn’t secured at the cost of around 5000 Palestinians imprisoned in the Israeli jails, negotiations cannot proceed ahead. Were the hostage deal to get through, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will lose the public mandate he has for the WAR ON HAMAS. Israelis want to destroy the tunnel infrastructure of Hamas in a message to Tehran that Israel retains the capability of decimating the Iranian axis of resistance. This will require a prolonged military campaign, something most members of the Israeli defence and political establishment have agreed to. If there are signs of Israel succeeding in their manoeuvre, Tehran will have no option but to escalate through other proxies in the region.
Prospects ?
At this point, the region is on a heatboil. Countries have their hands on the trigger but are caught up in the dilemma of having tolerance for a longer time than their adversary. The first one to blink might expose military leverage and risk getting caught up in a protracted conflict in the region. As of 24th October 2023, the humanitarian situation is very dire in Gaza with people struggling to have food, water and medicines. Nothing can justify the non-adherence to the rules of war and its fundamental principle of protecting civilians caught up in combat.
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